Imagine you are part of a panel meant to choose astronauts who can fly space missions and land on Mars. An astronaut you have chosen is on a space mission. Things don’t go by the plan and the spacecraft threatens to spiral out of control. Somehow, this astronaut along with his buddy manages to scramble things around and regain control! When back on earth, the astronaut is disappointed with himself. In his own eyes, he has failed in letting things go out of control. A thorough probe rules out human error, but his initial response was to think he goofed up! He wasn’t sure. Would you put him on the first flight to Mars? Let us say, you still do. After all, he did manage to regain control. Fast forward to the Mars landing moment, and on a private line, this astronaut says to Mission control even as he is manoeuvring the craft, that in his estimation, there is a 50-50 chance of the landing being successful. Just 50-50. With so much at stake! How would you as the decision-maker…